Colchester 1–2 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cambridge United

A. Read 13'

J. Brophy 45'

M. Jobe 45'

8/19/2025

League Two · Round 4Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Colchester34%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.36

Colchester

1.25

Cambridge United

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

1.46

creates per match

1.73

1.00

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Colchester

1.46

Cambridge United

1.73

allows per match

Colchester

1.00

Cambridge United

1.04

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.08on par

Cambridge United-0.48scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

61%

Colchester or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

66%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

15%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

71%

Colchester 2+ goals

36%

Colchester 3+ goals

13%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

74%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

39%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

47%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.04 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.46 + Cambridge United defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Cambridge United attack 1.73 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more

34%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

39%

Cambridge United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Brophy

Cambridge United · M

7.9

Match Events

13'

39'

44'

45'

45'

56'

66'

66'

O. Edwards← A. Akande

66'

J. Powell← K. Vincent-Young

67'

Samson Tovide

68'

Kelland Watts

71'

J. Gibbons← J. Brophy

72'

S. McLoughlin← E. Kachunga

76'

D. Gape← T. Bishop

76'

J. Williams← S. Tovide

83'

K. Kouassi← L. Appere

90+3'

Liam Bennett

90+5'

Z. Ibsen Rossi← L. Bennett

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterCambridge

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

2Corners11

11Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target5

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

347Total Passes314

243Accurate Passes209

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0