Cambridge United 1–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Colchester

K. Watts 3'

J. Payne 30'

2/17/2026

League Two · Round 33Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cambridge United56%

×Draw23%

Colchester21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.01

Cambridge United

1.81

Colchester

1.01

Cambridge United creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

1.82

creates per match

1.21

0.81

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.82

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.81

Colchester

1.81

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.74scores more

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

79%

Cambridge United or Colchester

77%

Draw or Colchester

44%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

32%

Colchester wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

84%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

54%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

27%

Colchester 1+ goals

64%

Colchester 2+ goals

27%

Colchester 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

73%

Colchester (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.81 · 9 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.82 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Colchester attack 1.21 + Cambridge United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cambridge United scores more

56%

level

23%

Colchester scores more

21%

Cambridge United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Watts

Cambridge United · D

8.0

Match Events

3'

22'

30'

43'

63'

R. Akachukwu← O. Edwards

71'

W. Goodwin← S. Tovide

71'

F. Barbrook← T. Bishop

72'

K. Smith← J. Brophy

72'

S. Lavery← L. Appere

72'

L. Bennett← B. Purrington

84'

James Gibbons

90+5'

Arthur Read

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeColchester

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots9

5Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

2On Target3

6Off Target1

6Blocked5

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

358Total Passes483

233Accurate Passes347

65%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

League Two: Cambridge United 1–1 Colchester

Cambridge United and Colchester drew 1-1 in League Two on February 17, 2026.

Goals: K. Watts (3'), J. Payne (30').

Colchester controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Cambridge United 1–1 Colchester