Cambridge United 2–1 Colchester: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colchester

P. Mullin 65', 50'

M. Folivi 68' (pen)

12/15/2020

League Two · Round 18Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Cambridge United57%

×Draw23%

Colchester20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.97

Cambridge United

1.81

Colchester

0.97

Cambridge United creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

0.73

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.80

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.73

Colchester

1.81

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.56scores more

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

80%

Cambridge United or Colchester

77%

Draw or Colchester

43%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

33%

Colchester wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

84%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

54%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

27%

Colchester 1+ goals

62%

Colchester 2+ goals

25%

Colchester 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

74%

Colchester (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.80 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Colchester attack 1.21 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Cambridge United scores more

57%

level

23%

Colchester scores more

20%

Cambridge United at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

P. Mullin

Cambridge United · F

8.3

Match Events

17'

Courtney Senior

50'

P. Mullin↳ L. Hannant

59'

N. Chilvers← C. Senior

59'

J. Brown← L. Norris

59'

M. Folivi← L. Gambin

65'

P. Mullin↳ H. Knibbs

68'

M. FoliviPenalty

71'

J. Tchamadeu← M. Welch-Hayes

79'

Paul Digby

83'

R. Clampin← C. Bramall

89'

L. Davies← I. El Mizouni

90'

J. Ironside← P. Mullin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeColchester

Overview

44%Possession56%

16Total Shots7

4Corners3

15Fouls10

Shots

16Total Shots7

7On Target2

7Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box3

10Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

325Total Passes409

214Accurate Passes291

66%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2