Colchester 1–1 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Colchester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cambridge United

G. Taylor 39' (OG)

H. Knibbs 12'

1/16/2021

League Two · Round 24JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Colchester36%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ColchesterExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.19

Colchester

1.18

Cambridge United

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.41

creates per match

1.38

0.99

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Colchester

1.41

Cambridge United

1.38

allows per match

Colchester

0.99

Cambridge United

0.95

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Colchester+0.16scores more

Cambridge United-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Colchester or draw

64%

Colchester or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

64%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+

15%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals

69%

Colchester 2+ goals

33%

Colchester 3+ goals

12%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

33%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)

50%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.99 · 14 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.95 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.41 + Cambridge United defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.18

Cambridge United attack 1.38 + Colchester defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Colchester scores more

36%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

36%

Colchester at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Mitov

Cambridge United · G

7.3

Match Events

4'

12'

37'

37'

39'

G. TaylorOwn goal

54'

Harry Pell

64'

J. Ironside← L. Hannant

77'

C. Senior← K. Poku

79'

R. Cundy← H. Darling

79'

L. O'Neil← A. May

90+1'

J. Bohui← C. Harriott

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ColchesterCambridge

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots6

3Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots6

4On Target2

5Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

408Total Passes388

269Accurate Passes233

66%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards2