Club Nacional 1–0 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Nacional

C. Oliva 88'

5/28/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Club Nacional60%

×Draw30%

Atletico Nacional10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.35

Club Nacional

1.26

Atletico Nacional

0.35

Club Nacional creates 260% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

0.86

creates per match

0.00

0.71

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Club Nacional

0.86

Atletico Nacional

0.00

allows per match

Club Nacional

0.71

Atletico Nacional

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No79
Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–17%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–025%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

90%

Club Nacional or Atletico Nacional

70%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

40%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

29%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

72%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

36%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

13%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

30%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

5%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

85%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 0.86 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atletico Nacional attack 0.00 + Club Nacional defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Nacional scores more

60%

level

30%

Atletico Nacional scores more

10%

Club Nacional at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Asprilla

Atletico Nacional · M

7.7

Match Events

3'

31'

43'

46'

66'

67'

G. Petit← Eduardo Vargas

74'

E. Ancheta← L. Morales

77'

Kevin Viveros

77'

A. Sarmiento← B. Arce

82'

K. D. Toscano Bassa← J. Zapata

82'

A. Morelos← M. Hinestroza

88'

C. Oliva↳ E. Ancheta

90'

B. Arady← L. Boggio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtletico

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots15

0.84Expected Goals (xG)1.14

6Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots15

4On Target3

4Off Target8

2Blocked4

6Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

39%Possession61%

314Total Passes514

220Accurate Passes428

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2