Atletico Nacional 0–0 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Nacional

5/13/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 4Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%

×Draw23%

Club Nacional15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.71

Atletico Nacional

1.75

Club Nacional

0.71

Atletico Nacional creates 146% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

0.20

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.40

Club Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.20

Club Nacional

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

85%

Atletico Nacional or Club Nacional

77%

Draw or Club Nacional

38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

36%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

52%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

51%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

16%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

81%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.40 + Club Nacional defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Club Nacional attack 1.22 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

62%

level

23%

Club Nacional scores more

15%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Y. Candelo

Atletico Nacional · M

8.2

Match Events

7'

F. Píriz← F. Carballo

33'

39'

40'

46'

59'

62'

62'

63'

63'

65'

G. Neves← G. Vega

65'

A. Oliveros← J. Trasante

68'

A. Castro← Y. Mosquera

76'

J. Duque← J. Barrera

81'

A. Trezza← L. Fernández

87'

F.

89'

G. Perea

90+4'

B. Ocampo

90+3'

N. Moreno← Y. Candelo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoClub

Overview

62%Possession38%

24Total Shots8

10Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots8

5On Target2

12Off Target3

7Blocked3

16Inside Box2

8Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

428Total Passes272

344Accurate Passes179

80%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

17Fouls11

5Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards2

2Offsides1