Club Nacional 4–4 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Club Nacional

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Atletico Nacional

G. Bergessio 64', 51', 12'

L. Fernández 45+4'

J. Barrera 85', 8'

R. Orihuela 74' (OG)

A. Andrade 45+2'

4/28/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 2Estadio Gran Parque Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Club Nacional53%

×Draw24%

Atletico Nacional23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club NacionalExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.06

Club Nacional

1.75

Atletico Nacional

1.06

Club Nacional creates 65% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Club Nacional

1.25

Atletico Nacional

1.00

allows per match

Club Nacional

1.13

Atletico Nacional

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Nacional ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Nacional or draw

77%

Club Nacional or Atletico Nacional

76%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

47%

Winning margin

Club Nacional wins by 2+

30%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Nacional 1+ goals

83%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

52%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

65%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

70%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Nacional at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Nacional attack 1.25 + Atletico Nacional defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Atletico Nacional attack 1.00 + Club Nacional defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Club Nacional scores more

53%

level

24%

Atletico Nacional scores more

23%

Club Nacional at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Club Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Andrade

Atletico Nacional · F

9.6

Match Events

8'

J. Barrera↳ J. Duque

12'

G. Bergessio↳ L. Fernández

17'

42'

44'

45+2'

45+4'

L. Fernández↳ C. Cándido

46'

Á. Gabrielli← E. Martínez

51'

G. Bergessio↳ C. Cándido

55'

E. Olivera← Y. Mosquera

55'

A. Castro← S. Gómez

57'

J. Duque

62'

R. Orihuela← C. Cándido

64'

G. Bergessio↳ L. Fernández

68'

G. May← L. Fernández

68'

G. Vega← G. Bergessio

70'

J. Alvez← Y. Candelo

71'

D. Banguero

74'

R. OrihuelaOwn goal

75'

M. Cantera← B. Ocampo

85'

J. Barrera↳ A. Andrade

90+3'

A. Castro

90+4'

M. Cantera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtletico

Overview

33%Possession67%

13Total Shots27

4Corners3

11Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots27

5On Target7

6Off Target10

2Blocked10

9Inside Box16

4Outside Box11

Passing

33%Possession67%

240Total Passes462

156Accurate Passes373

65%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls19

2Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0