Atletico Nacional 3–0 Club Nacional: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Nacional

A. Morelos 72'

K. Viveros 55'

M. Hinestroza 45'

4/3/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Atletico Nacional62%

×Draw23%

Club Nacional15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchClub Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.71

Atletico Nacional

1.75

Club Nacional

0.71

Atletico Nacional creates 146% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

0.20

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.40

Club Nacional

1.22

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.20

Club Nacional

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Club Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Club Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

85%

Atletico Nacional or Club Nacional

77%

Draw or Club Nacional

38%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

36%

Club Nacional wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

83%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

52%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

25%

Club Nacional 1+ goals

51%

Club Nacional 2+ goals

16%

Club Nacional 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

81%

Club Nacional (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Club Nacional away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.40 + Club Nacional defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.75

Club Nacional attack 1.22 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

62%

level

23%

Club Nacional scores more

15%

Atletico Nacional at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

M. Hinestroza

Atletico Nacional · M

9.3

Match Events

45'

M. Hinestroza↳ A. Roman

55'

K. Viveros↳ M. Hinestroza

59'

J. Recoba

60'

R. Otero← P. Calione

61'

L. M. Villalba Jaume← Eduardo Vargas

72'

A. Morelos↳ M. Hinestroza

74'

D. Asprilla← K. Viveros

74'

B. Arce← E. Cardona

77'

G. Petit← D. Herazo

85'

A. Sarmiento← M. Hinestroza

85'

F. A. Gil Mosquera← A. Morelos

85'

Y. Rodriguez← C. Oliva

85'

B. Arady← J. Recoba

86'

J. J. Arias← J. F. Aguirre Tabares

88'

F. A. Gil Mosquera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoClub

Overview

75%Possession25%

22Total Shots11

1.92Expected Goals (xG)0.78

6Corners6

10Fouls9

Shots

22Total Shots11

7On Target3

8Off Target3

7Blocked5

8Inside Box6

14Outside Box5

Passing

75%Possession25%

597Total Passes194

527Accurate Passes141

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.65Goals Prevented-0.65

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Club Nacional

Atletico Nacional beat Club Nacional 3-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Hinestroza (45'), K. Viveros (55'), A. Morelos (72').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (75%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot.

Atletico Nacional vs Club Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Atletico Nacional 3–0 Club Nacional