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Chertanovo Moscow vs Avangard Kursk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Chertanovo Moscow
Chertanovo Moscow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
11/11/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 18Arena Chertanovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow50%
×Draw28%
Avangard Kursk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chertanovo Moscow
1.33
Avangard Kursk
0.75

Chertanovo Moscow creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow
1.67
Avangard Kursk
0.94

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow
0.56
Avangard Kursk
1.00

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par
Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Avangard Kursk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw
79%
Chertanovo Moscow or Avangard Kursk
72%
Draw or Avangard Kursk
50%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+
24%
Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals
38%
Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals
15%
Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
53%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
17%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)
71%
Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.67 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more
50%
level
28%
Avangard Kursk scores more
21%

Chertanovo Moscow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chertanovo Moscow vs Avangard Kursk

Chertanovo Moscow beat Avangard Kursk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Chertanovo in Moskva.