Avangard Kursk 2–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Avangard Kursk

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chertanovo Moscow

I. Bobryshov 90+6'

N. Imullin 90'

R. Yamlikhanov 58'

7/16/2023

Second League A - Division A Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Avangard Kursk46%

×Draw25%

Chertanovo Moscow29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.15

Avangard Kursk

1.53

Chertanovo Moscow

1.15

Avangard Kursk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

1.63

creates per match

0.67

1.63

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.63

Chertanovo Moscow

0.67

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.63

Chertanovo Moscow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

71%

Avangard Kursk or Chertanovo Moscow

75%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

54%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

23%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

78%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

45%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

20%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

68%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

32%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

62%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.63 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Chertanovo Moscow attack 0.67 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

46%

level

25%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

29%

Avangard Kursk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Konev← E. Pankov

55'

D. Vyatkin← E. Mukhin

55'

I. Polyakov← D. Molodnyakov

58'

R. Yamlikhanov

65'

I. Gershun← N. Kupriyanov

65'

M. Tarasov← D. Savin

73'

Z. Svetov← M. Yakimenko

74'

M. Belkovskiy← V. Nafikov

87'

I. Bobryshov← V. Ignatenko

87'

E. Nabatov← A. Ageev

90'

N. Imullin

90+6'

I. Bobryshov

Avangard

Chertanovo

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Belyaev

55'▲D. Vyatkin←▼E. Mukhin

65'▲I. Gershun←▼N. Kupriyanov

65'▲M. Tarasov←▼D. Savin

87'▲I. Bobryshov←▼V. Ignatenko

87'▲E. Nabatov←▼A. Ageev

Avangard Kursk substitutes

VyatkinGershunTarasovBobryshovNabatov

Manager: S. Chikishev

46'▲A. Konev←▼E. Pankov

55'▲I. Polyakov←▼D. Molodnyakov

73'▲Z. Svetov←▼M. Yakimenko

74'▲M. Belkovskiy←▼V. Nafikov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

KonevPolyakovSvetovBelkovskiy