Avangard Kursk 0–1 Chertanovo Moscow

Avangard Kursk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chertanovo Moscow

D. Velikorodny 32'

10/12/2019

First League · Round 17Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Avangard Kursk44%

×Draw26%

Chertanovo Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.16

Avangard Kursk

1.48

Chertanovo Moscow

1.16

Avangard Kursk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 54 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.12

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.42

Chertanovo Moscow

1.20

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.12

Chertanovo Moscow

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

70%

Avangard Kursk or Chertanovo Moscow

74%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

56%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

22%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

77%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

43%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

19%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

69%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

32%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

60%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.12 · 33 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.42 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.20 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

44%

level

26%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

30%

Avangard Kursk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

36'

39'

45'

72'

K. Mashukov← A. Batyutin

74'

V. Bartasevich

74'

D. Korobov

74'

D. Korobov

76'

A. Kanishchev← D. Velikorodny

77'

V. Bartasevich

77'

V. Bartasevich

82'

S. Breev← R. Minaev

84'

E. Kondakov← E. Rudkovskiy

87'

I. Kubyshkin← D. Nikitin

90+5'

A. Konev← Y. Zavezen

90+3'

A. Nadolskiy← R. Ezhov

Avangard

Chertanovo

81

13

6

4

10

▼

Rudkovski

11

▼

Ezhov

5

Kamyshev

31

▼

Zavezen

8

Vityugov

23

Gorshkov

21

⚽

▼

1

40

24

97

▼

86

8

87

18

▼

Batyutin

14

Kovalev

10

Fedchuk

77

▼

Minaev

Manager: O. Vasilenko

72'▲K. Mashukov←▼A. Batyutin

82'▲S. Breev←▼R. Minaev

87'▲I. Kubyshkin←▼D. Nikitin

Avangard Kursk substitutes

7Mashukov20Breev23Kubyshkin6Kayumov13Chagrov17Sinyaev22Voynov66Lelyukaev

Manager: I. Osinkin

76'▲A. Kanishchev←▼D. Velikorodny

84'▲E. Kondakov←▼E. Rudkovskiy

90+5'▲A. Konev←▼Y. Zavezen

90+3'▲A. Nadolskiy←▼R. Ezhov

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

19Kanishchev3Kondakov96Konev99Nadolskiy1Lomaev91Tsypchenko