Chertanovo Moscow 3–2 Avangard Kursk

Chertanovo Moscow

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Avangard Kursk

R. Ezhov 75'

V. Sarveli 27'

N. Prudnikov 7'

V. Rudenko 90+4'

D. Korobov 52' (pen)

4/24/2019

First League · Round 33Sportivnyj gorodok Luzhniki (Moskva)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Chertanovo Moscow43%

×Draw27%

Avangard Kursk31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chertanovo MoscowExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.12

Chertanovo Moscow

1.37

Avangard Kursk

1.12

Chertanovo Moscow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 32 away

1.36

creates per match

0.94

1.30

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.36

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

Avangard Kursk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chertanovo Moscow ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chertanovo Moscow or draw

69%

Chertanovo Moscow or Avangard Kursk

73%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

57%

Winning margin

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

20%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

75%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

40%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

16%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

67%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

31%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

58%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chertanovo Moscow at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.36 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

43%

level

27%

Avangard Kursk scores more

31%

Chertanovo Moscow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Chertanovo Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

N. Prudnikov

27'

V. Sarveli

47'

Mikhail Bagaev

51'

Maksim Vityugov

52'

D. KorobovPenalty

61'

Alexander Troshechkin

61'

Aslan Dashaev

69'

Nikolay Prudnikov

75'

R. Ezhov

77'

Kirill Kolesnichenko

90+4'

V. Rudenko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff