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Chelyabinsk vs Veles — First League 2024

Chelyabinsk
Chelyabinsk
Preview
16:00
Veles
Veles
11/25/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Central Stadium
54%
Chelyabinsk
model favours
54%22%24%

71% of Veles’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Chelyabinsk54%
×Draw22%
Veles24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelyabinsk
1.96
Veles
1.25

Chelyabinsk creates 57% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 8 away

creates per match

Chelyabinsk
1.78
Veles
1.38

allows per match

Chelyabinsk
1.11
Veles
2.13

finishing

Chelyabinsk+0.00on par
Veles+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelyabinsk ↓

Veles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Chelyabinsk or draw
76%
Chelyabinsk or Veles
78%
Draw or Veles
46%

Winning margin

Chelyabinsk wins by 2+
31%
Veles wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Chelyabinsk 1+ goals
86%
Chelyabinsk 2+ goals
58%
Chelyabinsk 3+ goals
31%
Veles 1+ goals
71%
Veles 2+ goals
36%
Veles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chelyabinsk (draw refunded)
69%
Veles (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelyabinsk at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

Veles away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelyabinsk attack 1.78 + Veles defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Veles attack 1.38 + Chelyabinsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chelyabinsk scores more
54%
level
22%
Veles scores more
24%

Chelyabinsk at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chelyabinsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chelyabinsk and Veles have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Chelyabinsk
WDDL
Veles
WDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelyabinsk face Veles (First League)

First League returns with Chelyabinsk hosting Veles. Match starts November 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelyabinsk host Veles at Central Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.