Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
12/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Whaddon Road
37%
Cheltenham
model favours
37%27%36%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Cheltenham37%
×Draw27%
Port Vale36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.27
Port Vale
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.35
Port Vale
1.05

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.42
Port Vale
1.19

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
64%
Cheltenham or Port Vale
73%
Draw or Port Vale
63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
72%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
36%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
14%
Port Vale 1+ goals
71%
Port Vale 2+ goals
35%
Port Vale 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
51%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.35 + Port Vale defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

Port Vale attack 1.05 + Cheltenham defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
37%
level
27%
Port Vale scores more
36%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Cheltenham and Port Vale have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Cheltenham
LLLW
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Cheltenham host Port Vale

December 26, 2026: Cheltenham take on Port Vale in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Cheltenham host Port Vale at Whaddon Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.