Chelsea 2–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Sheffield Utd

T. Abraham 43', 19'

K. Zouma 89' (OG)

C. Robinson 46'

8/31/2019

Premier League · Round 4Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Chelsea60%

×Draw23%

Sheffield Utd16%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.77

Chelsea

1.73

Sheffield Utd

0.77

Chelsea creates 125% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 43 away

1.78

creates per match

0.56

0.98

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Chelsea

1.78

Sheffield Utd

0.56

allows per match

Chelsea

0.98

Sheffield Utd

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chelsea+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

84%

Chelsea or Sheffield Utd

77%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

40%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

34%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

82%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

54%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

18%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

79%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 201 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.78 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sheffield Utd attack 0.56 + Chelsea defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Chelsea scores more

60%

level

23%

Sheffield Utd scores more

16%

Chelsea at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

T. Abraham

Chelsea · F

8.4

Match Events

19'

T. Abraham

43'

T. Abraham

45'

Oliver McBurnie

46'

C. Robinson↳ E. Stevens

60'

Willian← R. Barkley

63'

D. McGoldrick← O. McBurnie

79'

L. Mousset← L. Freeman

83'

M. Batshuayi← M. Kovačić

84'

B. Gilmour← T. Abraham

84'

B. Osborn← C. Basham

89'

K. ZoumaOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaSheffield

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots8

3Corners4

6Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked1

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

719Total Passes429

627Accurate Passes338

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0