Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Aston Villa

C. Palmer 83'

E. Fernández 36'

N. Jackson 7'

12/1/2024

Premier League · Round 13Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Chelsea49%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.25

Chelsea

1.75

Aston Villa

1.25

Chelsea creates 40% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

1.88

creates per match

1.18

1.32

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Chelsea

1.88

Aston Villa

1.18

allows per match

Chelsea

1.32

Aston Villa

1.63

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.32scores less

Aston Villa-0.02on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

73%

Chelsea or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

51%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

71%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

36%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

64%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.32 · 27 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.88 + Aston Villa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aston Villa attack 1.18 + Chelsea defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chelsea scores more

49%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

27%

Chelsea at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

C. Palmer

Chelsea · M

9.0

Match Events

7'

N. Jackson

36'

E. Fernández↳ C. Palmer

46'

R. Olsen← E. Martínez

54'

Jaden Philogene-Bidace

60'

B. Badiashile← W. Fofana

61'

Matty Cash

62'

R. Barkley← B. Kamara

66'

J. Durán← M. Rogers

66'

L. Bailey← J. Philogene

71'

N. Madueke← J. Sancho

71'

C. Nkunku← N. Jackson

83'

C. Palmer↳ N. Madueke

84'

E. Buendía← O. Watkins

85'

Noni Madueke

86'

M. Gusto← R. Lavia

86'

João Félix← C. Palmer

89'

João Félix

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaAston

Overview

64%Possession36%

17Total Shots10

1.69Expected Goals (xG)1.23

3Corners4

21Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots10

8On Target4

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

12Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

623Total Passes352

561Accurate Passes296

90%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

-0.63Goals Prevented-0.63

Discipline

21Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1