Aston Villa 2–1 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chelsea

Marco Asensio 89', 57'

E. Fernández 9'

2/22/2025

Premier League · Round 26Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Aston Villa38%

×Draw25%

Chelsea37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.42

Aston Villa

1.43

Chelsea

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

1.43

creates per match

1.61

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.43

Chelsea

1.61

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.22

Chelsea

1.43

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.31scores more

Chelsea-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

63%

Aston Villa or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

62%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

18%

Chelsea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

76%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

42%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

17%

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

50%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.43 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.43 + Chelsea defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.43

Chelsea attack 1.61 + Aston Villa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aston Villa scores more

38%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

37%

Aston Villa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aston Villa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Marco Asensio

Aston Villa · M

8.7

Match Events

8'

T. Adarabioyo← T. Chalobah

9'

E. Fernández↳ Pedro Neto

46'

M. Rashford← J. Ramsey

56'

Enzo Fernández

57'

Marco Asensio↳ M. Rashford

59'

Marco AsensioGoal confirmed

59'

L. Bogarde← T. Mings

69'

John McGinn

70'

Andrés García← M. Cash

72'

Christopher Nkunku

76'

J. Sancho← C. Nkunku

77'

L. Bailey← O. Watkins

78'

D. Malen← M. Rogers

89'

Moisés Caicedo

89'

Marco Asensio↳ M. Rashford

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonChelsea

Overview

52%Possession48%

12Total Shots15

2.33Expected Goals (xG)2.30

2Corners3

15Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots15

6On Target7

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

484Total Passes446

421Accurate Passes393

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

0.12Goals Prevented0.12

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Aston Villa beat Chelsea 2-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2025.

Goals: E. Fernández (9'), Marco Asensio (57', 89').

Aston Villa controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Aston Villa vs Chelsea