Aston Villa 2–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Aston Villa

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Chelsea

M. Rogers 42'

Marc Cucurella 4' (OG)

C. Gallagher 81'

N. Madueke 62'

4/27/2024

Premier League · Round 35Villa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Aston Villa37%

×Draw25%

Chelsea38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aston VillaExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.41

Aston Villa

1.40

Chelsea

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 28 away

1.42

creates per match

1.57

1.24

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Aston Villa

1.42

Chelsea

1.57

allows per match

Aston Villa

1.24

Chelsea

1.39

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Aston Villa+0.33scores more

Chelsea-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aston Villa ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Aston Villa or draw

62%

Aston Villa or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

63%

Winning margin

Aston Villa wins by 2+

17%

Chelsea wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aston Villa 1+ goals

75%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

41%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

17%

Chelsea 1+ goals

76%

Chelsea 2+ goals

41%

Chelsea 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

50%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aston Villa at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.24 · 24 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aston Villa attack 1.42 + Chelsea defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chelsea attack 1.57 + Aston Villa defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aston Villa scores more

37%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

38%

Chelsea at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. Madueke

Chelsea · M

9.0

Match Events

4'

Marc CucurellaOwn goal

17'

Nicolas JacksonGoal cancelled

27'

M. Diaby← Y. Tielemans

42'

M. Rogers↳ M. Cash

46'

R. Olsen← E. Martínez

49'

49'

62'

64'

66'

75'

T. Iroegbunam← Douglas Luiz

75'

Diego Carlos← L. Bailey

81'

C. Gallagher↳ N. Madueke

82'

Mykhaylo Mudryk

83'

J. Durán← M. Diaby

87'

Thiago Silva

90+7'

Robin OlsenGoal cancelled

90+10'

Noni Madueke

90+10'

Benoît Badiashile

90'

A. Disasi← Thiago Silva

90'

C. Casadei← M. Mudryk

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AstonChelsea

Overview

29%Possession71%

9Total Shots21

1.10Expected Goals (xG)1.57

2Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots21

4On Target5

5Off Target10

0Blocked6

8Inside Box8

1Outside Box13

Passing

29%Possession71%

268Total Passes664

207Accurate Passes608

77%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards5

2Offsides4

Premier League: Aston Villa 2–2 Chelsea

Aston Villa and Chelsea drew 2-2 in Premier League on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Marc Cucurella (4' o.g.), M. Rogers (42'), N. Madueke (62'), C. Gallagher (81').

Chelsea controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Aston Villa 2–2 Chelsea