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Chelsea vs Aston Villa — Premier League 2026

Chelsea
Chelsea
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
R. Lukaku 90+3', 15'
M. Kovačić 49'
9/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Chelsea50%
×Draw23%
Aston Villa26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea
1.77
Aston Villa
1.21

Chelsea creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

creates per match

Chelsea
1.86
Aston Villa
1.13

allows per match

Chelsea
1.28
Aston Villa
1.67

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less
Aston Villa+0.03on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw
74%
Chelsea or Aston Villa
77%
Draw or Aston Villa
50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+
28%
Aston Villa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals
83%
Chelsea 2+ goals
53%
Chelsea 3+ goals
26%
Aston Villa 1+ goals
70%
Aston Villa 2+ goals
34%
Aston Villa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)
66%
Aston Villa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.67 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Aston Villa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

Aston Villa attack 1.13 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more
50%
level
23%
Aston Villa scores more
26%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
E. MendyChelseaChelsea · G
8.7

Match Events

8'
Jacob Ramsey
15'
R. Lukaku↳ M. Kovačić
28'
Tyrone Mings
46'
Jorginho← Saúl
49'
M. Kovačić
56'
L. Bailey← J. Ramsey
61'
Marcos Alonso
64'
Azpilicueta← K. Havertz
69'
Bertrand Traoré← D. Ings
79'
M. Nakamba← Douglas Luiz
82'
T. Werner← C. Hudson-Odoi
90'
John McGinn
90'
Matt Targett
90+3'
R. Lukaku↳ Azpilicueta

Possession

57%Chelsea

Shots

12Chelsea

Pass accuracy

52%Chelsea

Statistics

ChelseaAston
Overview
57%Possession43%
12Total Shots18
4Corners11
11Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots18
4On Target6
6Off Target3
2Blocked9
6Inside Box11
6Outside Box7
Passing
57%Possession43%
476Total Passes344
396Accurate Passes270
83%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls11
1Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Premier League: Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa

Chelsea beat Aston Villa 3-0 in Premier League on September 11, 2021.

Goals: R. Lukaku (15', 90+3'), M. Kovačić (49').

Chelsea controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stamford Bridge in London.