Chelsea 2–1 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Chelsea

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Aston Villa

M. Mount 48'

T. Abraham 24'

Trézéguet 41'

12/4/2019

Premier League · Round 15Stamford Bridge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Chelsea50%

×Draw24%

Aston Villa26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChelseaExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.21

Chelsea

1.75

Aston Villa

1.21

Chelsea creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.86

creates per match

1.14

1.28

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Chelsea

1.86

Aston Villa

1.14

allows per match

Chelsea

1.28

Aston Villa

1.64

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Chelsea-0.44scores less

Aston Villa+0.02on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Chelsea or draw

74%

Chelsea or Aston Villa

76%

Draw or Aston Villa

50%

Winning margin

Chelsea wins by 2+

27%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chelsea 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea 2+ goals

52%

Chelsea 3+ goals

25%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

70%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

34%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Chelsea (draw refunded)

65%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.28 · 38 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.64 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea attack 1.86 + Aston Villa defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aston Villa attack 1.14 + Chelsea defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chelsea scores more

50%

level

24%

Aston Villa scores more

26%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Willian

Chelsea · M

8.3

Match Events

24'

T. Abraham↳ R. James

41'

Trézéguet↳ Ahmed El Mohamady

45'

Mason Mount

48'

M. Mount↳ T. Abraham

58'

Douglas Luiz← C. Hourihane

64'

Matt Targett

76'

Jota Peleteiro← Trézéguet

81'

Mateo Kovačić

82'

M. Batshuayi← T. Abraham

86'

C. Hudson-Odoi← C. Pulisic

90+1'

Jorginho← Willian

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChelseaAston

Overview

64%Possession36%

25Total Shots9

9Corners5

18Fouls10

Shots

25Total Shots9

9On Target3

6Off Target1

10Blocked5

16Inside Box8

9Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

649Total Passes349

564Accurate Passes280

87%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

18Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1