Chateauroux 0–0 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajaccio

5/15/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux35%

×Draw28%

Ajaccio36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.17

Chateauroux

1.15

Ajaccio

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

1.06

creates per match

0.76

1.57

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Ajaccio

0.76

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Ajaccio

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

64%

Chateauroux or Ajaccio

72%

Draw or Ajaccio

65%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

15%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

68%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

32%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

11%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

69%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

33%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

49%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chateauroux scores more

35%

level

28%

Ajaccio scores more

36%

Ajaccio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

M. Bulka

Chateauroux · G

8.5

Match Events

46'

L. Leroy← A. Ez Zaytouni

49'

Yannick M'Bone

59'

P. Keny← P. Ibara

68'

I. Chouaref← G. Sunu

68'

T. N'Jike← Q. Laçi

68'

R. Nouri← M. Barreto

75'

J. Botué Kouamé← B. Moussiti-Oko

79'

F. Mendy← G. Tormin

86'

Gaëtan Courtet

89'

F. Chabrolle← Y. Cimignani

89'

C. Avinel← G. Kalulu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxAjaccio

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots15

3Corners3

7Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots15

3On Target6

7Off Target8

3Blocked1

5Inside Box9

8Outside Box6

Passing

62%Possession38%

654Total Passes384

561Accurate Passes301

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides8