Ajaccio 0–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

A. Nouri 78'

8/22/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Ange Casanova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ajaccio48%

×Draw30%

Chateauroux22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.72

Ajaccio

1.23

Chateauroux

0.72

Ajaccio creates 71% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 50 away

1.13

creates per match

0.68

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.13

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.76

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

78%

Ajaccio or Chateauroux

70%

Draw or Chateauroux

52%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

22%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

71%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

35%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

13%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

51%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

16%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

69%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.13 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Ajaccio defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ajaccio scores more

48%

level

30%

Chateauroux scores more

22%

Ajaccio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Nouri

Chateauroux · M

8.1

Match Events

24'

B. Dedola← G. Kalulu

29'

P. Keny← R. Grange

62'

F. Mattoir← Y. Cimignani

71'

M. Coutadeur← T. NJike

78'

A. Raineau← L. Leroy

78'

A. Nouri↳ G. Sunu

83'

Philippe Keny

90+1'

A. Gonçalves← I. Chouaref

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioChateauroux

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots5

2Corners2

15Fouls24

Shots

8Total Shots5

1On Target1

5Off Target3

2Blocked1

8Inside Box3

0Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

395Total Passes303

308Accurate Passes217

78%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls24

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1