Ajaccio 1–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

R. Nouri 60'

C. Alhadhur 90+4'

3/29/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade François-Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Ajaccio48%

×Draw30%

Chateauroux22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.72

Ajaccio

1.23

Chateauroux

0.72

Ajaccio creates 71% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 50 away

1.13

creates per match

0.68

0.76

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.13

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.76

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

78%

Ajaccio or Chateauroux

70%

Draw or Chateauroux

52%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

22%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

71%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

35%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

13%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

51%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

16%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

69%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.13 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Ajaccio defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ajaccio scores more

48%

level

30%

Chateauroux scores more

22%

Ajaccio at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Nouri

Ajaccio · M

7.5

Match Events

23'

Leo Leroy

46'

J. Choplin← Q. Laçi

60'

R. Nouri↳ J. Hergault

64'

Yann Boé-Kane

66'

N. Sawai← M. Tramoni

66'

J. Livolant← C. Operi

78'

F. Diarra← L. Leroy

85'

F. Tomi← C. Zady Sery

90+4'

C. Alhadhur↳ F. Diarra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioChateauroux

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots10

2Corners1

14Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots10

5On Target4

2Off Target5

0Blocked1

4Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

441Total Passes519

342Accurate Passes411

78%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2