Chateauroux 0–1 Ajaccio: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Ajaccio

G. Courtet 9'

8/16/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux35%

×Draw28%

Ajaccio36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchAjaccio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.17

Chateauroux

1.15

Ajaccio

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

1.06

creates per match

0.76

1.57

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Ajaccio

0.76

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Ajaccio

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Ajaccio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

64%

Chateauroux or Ajaccio

72%

Draw or Ajaccio

65%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

15%

Ajaccio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

68%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

32%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

11%

Ajaccio 1+ goals

69%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

33%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

49%

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chateauroux scores more

35%

level

28%

Ajaccio scores more

36%

Ajaccio at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Leroy

Ajaccio · G

8.1

Match Events

9'

G. Courtet↳ J. Cavalli

32'

57'

57'

61'

64'

70'

J. Corinus← J. Cavalli

74'

V. Vanbaleghem← I. Marega

84'

M. Tramoni← C. Zady Sery

90+4'

M. El Idrissy← C. Bayala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxAjaccio

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots3

6Corners2

12Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots3

5On Target1

5Off Target0

3Blocked2

9Inside Box1

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

485Total Passes527

398Accurate Passes428

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides4