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CF Pachuca vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
Preview
23:00
Toluca
Toluca
11/21/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 17Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Big match
38%
CF Pachuca
model favours
38%26%36%

CF Pachuca score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

CF Pachuca38%
×Draw26%
Toluca36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.34
Toluca
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 23 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.68
Toluca
1.48

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.10
Toluca
1.00

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
64%
CF Pachuca or Toluca
74%
Draw or Toluca
62%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%
Toluca wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
74%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
39%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
15%
Toluca 1+ goals
72%
Toluca 2+ goals
37%
Toluca 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
52%
Toluca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.68 + Toluca defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Toluca attack 1.48 + CF Pachuca defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
38%
level
26%
Toluca scores more
36%

CF Pachuca at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Toluca win just 30% against the top half (vs 73% against the bottom)
  • CF Pachuca outscore their xG (1.5 vs 1.1 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Pachuca
WLWWW
Toluca
DLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CF Pachuca face Toluca (Liga MX)

Liga MX returns with CF Pachuca hosting Toluca. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CF Pachuca host Toluca at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.