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CF Pachuca vs Toluca — Liga MX 2018

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
CANC
00:00
Toluca
Toluca
3/22/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 11Estadio Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 149+ matches

CF Pachuca48%
×Draw25%
Toluca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.60
Toluca
1.14

CF Pachuca creates 40% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 149 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.67
Toluca
1.23

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.04
Toluca
1.54

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
73%
CF Pachuca or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
52%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
25%
Toluca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
80%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
47%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
22%
Toluca 1+ goals
68%
Toluca 2+ goals
32%
Toluca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
64%
Toluca (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.04 · 150 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.54 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.67 + Toluca defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Toluca attack 1.23 + CF Pachuca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
48%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
27%

CF Pachuca at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CF Pachuca vs Toluca — Match Preview

CF Pachuca face Toluca on March 22, 2020 in this Liga MX fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

CF Pachuca host Toluca at Estadio Hidalgo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.