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CF Pachuca vs Atlas — Liga MX 2026

CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlas
Atlas
S. Rondon 67'
B. A. Garcia Caprizo 41'
O. Idrissi 18'
A. Gonzalez 64' (pen)
2/14/2026Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 6Estadio Miguel Hidalgo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

CF Pachuca54%
×Draw24%
Atlas22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Pachuca
1.69
Atlas
0.98

CF Pachuca creates 72% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 22 away

creates per match

CF Pachuca
1.48
Atlas
0.95

allows per match

CF Pachuca
1.02
Atlas
1.91

finishing

CF Pachuca+0.00on par
Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Pachuca ↓

Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

CF Pachuca or draw
78%
CF Pachuca or Atlas
76%
Draw or Atlas
46%

Winning margin

CF Pachuca wins by 2+
29%
Atlas wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CF Pachuca 1+ goals
82%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
50%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
24%
Atlas 1+ goals
62%
Atlas 2+ goals
26%
Atlas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
71%
Atlas (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Pachuca at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 40 matches

Atlas away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Pachuca attack 1.48 + Atlas defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlas attack 0.95 + CF Pachuca defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

CF Pachuca scores more
54%
level
24%
Atlas scores more
22%

CF Pachuca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "CF Pachuca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
O. IdrissiCF PachucaCF Pachuca · M
8.3

Match Events

10'
Alan Bautista
18'
O. Idrissi↳ C. Rivera
41'
B. A. Garcia Caprizo↳ O. Idrissi
45+3'
Sergio Rodríguez
46'
E. Zaldivar← V. H. Rios De Alba
46'
D. Gonzalez← M. E. Garcia
61'
Sergio Barreto
64'
A. GonzalezPenalty
65'
L. Quinones← O. Idrissi
67'
S. Rondon↳ A. Dominguez
79'
P. Pedraza← S. Rodriguez
79'
V. Guzman← A. Bautista
79'
L. Gamboa← Gustavo Ferrareis
83'
Carlos Moreno
87'
R. Lopez← C. Sanchez
88'
G. del Prete← A. Gonzalez
90+6'
Pedro Pedraza

Possession

38%CF

Shots

7CF

Pass accuracy

47%CF

Statistics

CFAtlas
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots15
0.83Expected Goals (xG)1.57
0Corners6
17Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots15
4On Target5
3Off Target7
0Blocked3
2Inside Box9
5Outside Box6
Passing
38%Possession62%
313Total Passes516
242Accurate Passes448
77%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-2.03Goals Prevented-2.03
Discipline
17Fouls8
5Yellow Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: CF Pachuca vs Atlas

CF Pachuca beat Atlas 3-1 in Liga MX on February 14, 2026.

Goals: O. Idrissi (18'), B. A. Garcia Caprizo (41'), A. Gonzalez (64' pen), S. Rondon (67').

Atlas controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo in Pachuca de Soto.