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Atlas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2026

Atlas
Atlas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
S. D. Barreto 42'
A. Aceves 24'
G. Togni 9'
8/10/2025Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Atlas38%
×Draw25%
CF Pachuca37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.45
CF Pachuca
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.43
CF Pachuca
1.34

allows per match

Atlas
1.48
CF Pachuca
1.47

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
63%
Atlas or CF Pachuca
75%
Draw or CF Pachuca
62%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
18%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
77%
Atlas 2+ goals
42%
Atlas 3+ goals
18%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
76%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
41%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
51%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.43 + CF Pachuca defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

CF Pachuca attack 1.34 + Atlas defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Atlas scores more
38%
level
25%
CF Pachuca scores more
37%

Atlas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
S. D. BarretoCF PachucaCF Pachuca · D
8.3

Match Events

9'
G. Togni↳ E. Montiel
24'
A. Aceves↳ V. Guzman
31'
Uroš ĐurđevićPenalty cancelled
42'
S. D. Barreto↳ E. Montiel
46'
M. Coccaro← C. Orrantia
53'
Uroš Đurđević
53'
Daniel Aceves
60'
Carlos Moreno
60'
L. Quinones← G. Togni
60'
Alemao← J. Cadiz
61'
Matías Cóccaro
70'
Alexei Domínguez
71'
S. Hernandez← Gustavo Ferrareis
71'
G. del Prete← E. Aguirre
71'
C. Sanchez← L. Rodriguez
71'
O. Idrissi← A. Dominguez
72'
Kenedy← V. Guzman
83'
Pedro Pedraza
88'
L. Blanco← D. Gonzalez
90+1'
M. E. Garcia← A. Gonzalez

Possession

53%Atlas

Shots

14Atlas

Pass accuracy

50%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasCF
Overview
53%Possession47%
14Total Shots14
1.27Expected Goals (xG)0.97
6Corners4
11Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots14
4On Target6
6Off Target4
4Blocked4
7Inside Box6
7Outside Box8
Passing
53%Possession47%
467Total Passes415
395Accurate Passes349
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls14
2Yellow Cards4
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Atlas vs CF Pachuca

CF Pachuca beat Atlas 3-0 in Liga MX on August 10, 2025.

Goals: G. Togni (9'), A. Aceves (24'), S. D. Barreto (42').

Atlas controlled possession (53%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.