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Atlas vs CF Pachuca — Liga MX 2022

Atlas
Atlas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CF Pachuca
CF Pachuca
J. Márquez 16'
V. Ríos 13'
9/14/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Jalisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Atlas37%
×Draw26%
CF Pachuca37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlas
1.38
CF Pachuca
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 77 away

creates per match

Atlas
1.31
CF Pachuca
1.39

allows per match

Atlas
1.36
CF Pachuca
1.45

finishing

Atlas+0.00on par
CF Pachuca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlas ↓

CF Pachuca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlas or draw
63%
Atlas or CF Pachuca
74%
Draw or CF Pachuca
63%

Winning margin

Atlas wins by 2+
17%
CF Pachuca wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Atlas 1+ goals
75%
Atlas 2+ goals
40%
Atlas 3+ goals
16%
CF Pachuca 1+ goals
75%
CF Pachuca 2+ goals
40%
CF Pachuca 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Atlas (draw refunded)
50%
CF Pachuca (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlas at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 70 matches

CF Pachuca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlas attack 1.31 + CF Pachuca defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

CF Pachuca attack 1.39 + Atlas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlas scores more
37%
level
26%
CF Pachuca scores more
37%

Atlas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Atlas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

185
V. RíosAtlasAtlas · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
Pedro Pedraza
13'
V. Ríos↳ R. Fulgencio
16'
J. Márquez
20'
José Lozano
22'
Victor Rios
45'
Elías Montiel
45+8'
Arturo González
46'
Andres Micolta
59'
M. García← V. Ríos
59'
J. Murillo← R. Lozano
60'
O. González← F. Gil
60'
N. Deossa← P. Pedraza
60'
L. Rodríguez← C. Sánchez
60'
S. Hernández← O. Idrissi
65'
S. Rondón← Borja Bastón
74'
U. Đurđević← E. Aguirre
75'
G. Aguirre← É. Zaldívar
82'
P. Ramírez← J. Márquez
88'
Aldo Rocha

Possession

58%Atlas

Shots

11Atlas

Pass accuracy

52%Atlas

Statistics

AtlasCF
Overview
58%Possession42%
11Total Shots6
5Corners7
16Fouls16
Shots
11Total Shots6
3On Target2
5Off Target3
3Blocked1
5Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
516Total Passes373
434Accurate Passes292
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls16
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Atlas vs CF Pachuca

Atlas beat CF Pachuca 2-0 in Liga MX on September 14, 2024.

Goals: V. Ríos (13'), J. Márquez (16').

Atlas controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Jalisco in Guadalajara.