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Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion
2/11/2024Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 5Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Cerro Porteno40%
×Draw25%
Libertad Asuncion35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerro Porteno
1.43
Libertad Asuncion
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 97 away

creates per match

Cerro Porteno
1.79
Libertad Asuncion
1.84

allows per match

Cerro Porteno
0.82
Libertad Asuncion
1.07

finishing

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par
Libertad Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerro Porteno ↓

Libertad Asuncion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cerro Porteno or draw
65%
Cerro Porteno or Libertad Asuncion
75%
Draw or Libertad Asuncion
60%

Winning margin

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
19%
Libertad Asuncion wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
76%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
42%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
17%
Libertad Asuncion 1+ goals
74%
Libertad Asuncion 2+ goals
38%
Libertad Asuncion 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
53%
Libertad Asuncion (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerro Porteno at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.82 · 97 matches

Libertad Asuncion away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.07 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerro Porteno attack 1.79 + Libertad Asuncion defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.43

Libertad Asuncion attack 1.84 + Cerro Porteno defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cerro Porteno scores more
40%
level
25%
Libertad Asuncion scores more
35%

Cerro Porteno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cerro Porteno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerro Porteno vs Libertad Asuncion

Cerro Porteno and Libertad Asuncion drew 1-1 in Division Profesional - Apertura on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio ueno Defensores del Chaco in Asunción.