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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
Miguel Merentiel 89'
J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 36' (OG)
M. Gimenez 16'
3/8/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 9Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago43%
×Draw29%
Boca Juniors28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.21
Boca Juniors
0.91

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 14 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.27
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.91
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
72%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Boca Juniors
71%
Draw or Boca Juniors
57%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
19%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
70%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
34%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
12%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
60%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
23%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
61%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.91 · 17 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.27 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
43%
level
29%
Boca Juniors scores more
28%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
A. MarchesinBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · G
8.3

Match Events

16'
M. Gimenez
36'
J. I. Florentin BobadillaOwn goal
40'
G. Veron
45+5'
M. Delgado
45+8'
J. Galvan
46'
L. Abascia← G. Veron
46'
N. Quagliata← L. Angulo
64'
W. H. Alarcon Cepeda← A. Herrera
64'
Miguel Merentiel← M. Gimenez
66'
M. Perello
67'
D. Barrera← I. Gomez
67'
F. Cabral← M. Perello
68'
D. Glaby← L. Heredia
83'
L. Advincula← Carlos Palacios
83'
B. Aguirre← E. Cavani
89'
Miguel Merentiel↳ L. Advincula
90'
E. Zeballos← K. Zenon

Possession

42%Central

Shots

11Central

Pass accuracy

48%Central

Statistics

CentralBoca
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots6
5Corners2
16Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots6
5On Target4
5Off Target1
1Blocked1
4Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
42%Possession58%
374Total Passes530
303Accurate Passes460
81%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 0–3 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 8, 2025.

Goals: M. Gimenez (16'), J. I. Florentin Bobadilla (36' o.g.), Miguel Merentiel (89').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (58%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero.