Boca Juniors 2–2 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Boca Juniors

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

Miguel Merentiel 56'

R. Battaglia 41'

I. Gomez 83'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 62'

9/22/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Alberto J. Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors52%

×Draw27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boca JuniorsExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.83

Boca Juniors

1.45

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.83

Boca Juniors creates 75% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

1.52

creates per match

0.74

0.92

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Boca Juniors

1.52

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.74

allows per match

Boca Juniors

0.92

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.38

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw

78%

Boca Juniors or Central Cordoba de Santiago

73%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+

26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals

77%

Boca Juniors 2+ goals

42%

Boca Juniors 3+ goals

18%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

56%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

20%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)

71%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more

52%

level

27%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Battaglia

Boca Juniors · M

8.6

Match Events

30'

41'

56'

58'

58'

58'

62'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla↳ J. Galvan

74'

A. Velasco← B. Aguirre

74'

F. Alfonso← L. Heredia

79'

83'

85'

88'

90+4'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BocaCentral

Overview

63%Possession37%

24Total Shots9

2.26Expected Goals (xG)0.49

12Corners4

7Fouls23

Shots

24Total Shots9

8On Target2

7Off Target6

9Blocked1

16Inside Box2

8Outside Box7

Passing

63%Possession37%

551Total Passes323

464Accurate Passes248

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

7Fouls23

2Yellow Cards4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–2 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Boca Juniors and Central Cordoba de Santiago drew 2-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 22, 2025.

Goals: R. Battaglia (41'), Miguel Merentiel (56'), J. I. Florentin Bobadilla (62'), I. Gomez (83').

Boca Juniors controlled possession (63%) and registered 24 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto J. Armando in Buenos Aires.

Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 2–2 Central Cordoba de Santiago