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Boca Juniors vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2/5/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 2Estadio Alberto José Armando

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Boca Juniors52%
×Draw27%
Central Cordoba de Santiago22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boca Juniors
1.45
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.83

Boca Juniors creates 75% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Boca Juniors
1.52
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.74

allows per match

Boca Juniors
0.92
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.38

finishing

Boca Juniors-0.08on par
Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.10scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boca Juniors ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boca Juniors or draw
78%
Boca Juniors or Central Cordoba de Santiago
73%
Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago
48%

Winning margin

Boca Juniors wins by 2+
26%
Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Boca Juniors 1+ goals
77%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
42%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
18%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
56%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
20%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
71%
Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boca Juniors at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.92 · 18 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boca Juniors attack 1.52 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.45

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Boca Juniors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boca Juniors scores more
52%
level
27%
Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
22%

Boca Juniors at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Boca Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
B. ValdezBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · D
7.9

Match Events

25'
Fabio Pereyra
61'
G. Torres← L. Gamba
65'
Sergio Romero
68'
Jorge Figal
71'
E. Fernández← G. Fernández
72'
M. Merentiel← J. Ramírez
75'
J. Soraire← B. Farioli
81'
E. Zeballos← Ó. Romero
82'
L. Rodríguez← F. Castelli
89'
Enzo Kalinski
90+3'
Bruno Valdez

Possession

72%Boca

Shots

12Boca

Pass accuracy

58%Boca

Statistics

BocaCentral
Overview
72%Possession28%
12Total Shots11
3Corners4
6Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots11
3On Target3
8Off Target2
1Blocked6
7Inside Box3
5Outside Box8
Passing
72%Possession28%
583Total Passes215
502Accurate Passes133
86%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
6Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides4

Liga Profesional Argentina: Boca Juniors 0–0 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Boca Juniors and Central Cordoba de Santiago drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 5, 2023.

Boca Juniors controlled possession (72%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto José Armando in Ciudad de Buenos Aires.