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Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Boca Juniors — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 0
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors
M. Sanabria 45+3'
R. Atencio 3'
E. Fernández 90+6', 47'
M. Merentiel 80', 52'
5/19/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago45%
×Draw29%
Boca Juniors26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.23
Boca Juniors
0.85

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 14 away

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.30
Boca Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.79
Boca Juniors
1.15

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par
Boca Juniors+0.30scores more

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Boca Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw
74%
Central Cordoba de Santiago or Boca Juniors
71%
Draw or Boca Juniors
55%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
20%
Boca Juniors wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
71%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
35%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
13%
Boca Juniors 1+ goals
57%
Boca Juniors 2+ goals
21%
Boca Juniors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
64%
Boca Juniors (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Boca Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.15 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.30 + Boca Juniors defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Boca Juniors attack 0.91 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
45%
level
29%
Boca Juniors scores more
26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
E. FernándezBoca JuniorsBoca Juniors · M
9.3

Match Events

3'
R. Atencio
16'
Lautaro Blanco
36'
M. Saracchi← L. Advíncula
41'
Rodrigo Atencio
42'
Kevin Vázquez
45+3'
M. Sanabria↳ T. Molina
47'
E. Fernández↳ K. Zenón
52'
M. Merentiel
55'
F. Monzón← W. Montoya
56'
Matías Godoy
59'
J. Meli← T. Molina
71'
V. Taborda← J. Saralegui
71'
L. Janson← L. Langoni
76'
A. Morales← M. Godoy
76'
R. Cansinos← M. Sanabria
80'
M. Merentiel↳ E. Fernández
87'
J. Campuzano← G. Fernández
90+6'
E. Fernández

Possession

57%Central

Shots

11Central

Pass accuracy

51%Central

Statistics

CentralBoca
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots16
1.52Expected Goals (xG)2.72
2Corners6
14Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots16
2On Target11
2Off Target4
7Blocked1
6Inside Box11
5Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
478Total Passes357
392Accurate Passes282
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
7Saves0
-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42
Discipline
14Fouls15
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–4 Boca Juniors

Boca Juniors beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 19, 2024.

Goals: R. Atencio (3'), M. Sanabria (45+3'), E. Fernández (47', 90+6'), M. Merentiel (52', 80').

Central Cordoba de Santiago controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.