Central Cordoba de Santiago 4–0 Belgrano Cordoba

Central Cordoba de Santiago

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Belgrano Cordoba

D. Barrera 87'

L. Rivero 61'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla 43'

F. Cabral 18'

2/15/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 6Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago45%

×Draw30%

Belgrano Cordoba26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Cordoba de SantiagoExpected goals in this matchBelgrano Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.84

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.21

Belgrano Cordoba

0.84

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

0.79

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.30

Belgrano Cordoba

0.89

allows per match

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.79

Belgrano Cordoba

1.11

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.08on par

Belgrano Cordoba-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Cordoba de Santiago ↓

Belgrano Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Central Cordoba de Santiago or draw

74%

Central Cordoba de Santiago or Belgrano Cordoba

70%

Draw or Belgrano Cordoba

55%

Winning margin

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

20%

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

70%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

34%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

12%

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

57%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

21%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

64%

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Cordoba de Santiago at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 16 matches

Belgrano Cordoba away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.30 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.89 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

45%

level

30%

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Angulo

Central Cordoba de Santiago · F

8.3

Match Events

18'

F. Cabral↳ M. Perello

25'

Gabriel Compagnucci

43'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla↳ I. Gomez

46'

L. Menossi← F. Gonzalez

46'

L. Passerini← U. Sanchez

46'

B. Reyna← T. Cravero

57'

Gabriel Compagnucci

57'

Gabriel Compagnucci

58'

E. Lopez← N. Fernandez

59'

C. Vega← F. Cabral

61'

L. Rivero↳ L. Angulo

68'

G. Veron← L. Heredia

68'

D. Barrera← M. Perello

74'

S. Cristoforo← J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

74'

F. Alfonso← L. Angulo

77'

G. Heredia← F. Quignon

87'

D. Barrera↳ G. Veron

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CentralBelgrano

Overview

62%Possession38%

19Total Shots8

9Corners0

5Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots8

10On Target1

5Off Target5

4Blocked2

14Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

481Total Passes305

403Accurate Passes231

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

5Fouls9

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1