Belgrano Cordoba 0–3 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Central Cordoba de Santiago

D. Barrera 84', 53'

G. Veron 3'

8/25/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba44%

×Draw30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.85

Belgrano Cordoba

1.19

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.85

Belgrano Cordoba creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

0.98

creates per match

0.74

0.97

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.98

Central Cordoba de Santiago

0.74

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

0.97

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.40

+0.02on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.02on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.15scores more

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

74%

Belgrano Cordoba or Central Cordoba de Santiago

70%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

56%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

19%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

70%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

33%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

12%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

57%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

21%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

63%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.40 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.98 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

44%

level

30%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

26%

Belgrano Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

G. Veron

Central Cordoba de Santiago · F

8.7

Match Events

3'

G. Veron↳ I. .. Pillud

21'

39'

42'

46'

46'

46'

51'

53'

60'

68'

U. Sanchez← R. A. Saravia Salvia

68'

L. Passerini← F. Ricca

68'

I. Gomez← L. Heredia

68'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla← F. Juarez

69'

Alan Aguerre

74'

Lisandro López

74'

Lisandro López

76'

A. Leguizamon← N. Fernandez

79'

N. Funez← G. Veron

84'

D. Barrera↳ N. Funez

89'

Matías Vera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoCentral

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots5

0.90Expected Goals (xG)1.95

7Corners0

12Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots5

6On Target3

10Off Target1

3Blocked1

12Inside Box3

7Outside Box2

Passing

61%Possession39%

500Total Passes339

419Accurate Passes254

84%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

0.93Goals Prevented0.93

Discipline

12Fouls15

5Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Central Cordoba de Santiago beat Belgrano Cordoba 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 25, 2025.

Goals: G. Veron (3'), D. Barrera (53', 84').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Julio Cesar Villagra in Cordoba.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago