Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Belgrano Cordoba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Central Cordoba de Santiago

F. Lencioni 46'

M. Sanabria 78'

10/25/2023

League #1032 · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba34%

×Draw26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Belgrano CordobaExpected goals in this matchCentral Cordoba de Santiago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.38

Belgrano Cordoba

1.25

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.38

Central Cordoba de Santiago creates 10% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.50

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.00

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba

1.75

Central Cordoba de Santiago

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.00on par

Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw

60%

Belgrano Cordoba or Central Cordoba de Santiago

74%

Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago

66%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+

15%

Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals

71%

Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals

36%

Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals

13%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals

75%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals

40%

Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)

46%

Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 1.50 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 1.00 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more

34%

level

26%

Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more

40%

Central Cordoba de Santiago at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Central Cordoba de Santiago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

L. Maciel

Central Cordoba de Santiago · M

7.9

Match Events

46'

F. Jourdan← B. Farioli

46'

E. Kalinski← J. Meli

46'

F. Lencioni↳ J. Barinaga

60'

60'

63'

65'

71'

71'

M. García← F. Lencioni

74'

M. Rangel← C. Ocampos

74'

M. Sanabria← L. Gamba

78'

M. Sanabria↳ E. Kalinski

80'

A. Ibacache← L. Diarte

84'

J. Patiño← B. Blasi

87'

M. Miño← E. Rolón

88'

F. Facello← J. Barinaga

90+7'

90+9'

90+8'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BelgranoCentral

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots7

6Corners0

10Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots7

6On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked2

8Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

434Total Passes347

326Accurate Passes248

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls9

3Yellow Cards5

1Offsides0

League #1032: Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago

Belgrano Cordoba and Central Cordoba de Santiago drew 1-1 in League #1032 on October 25, 2023.

Goals: F. Lencioni (46'), M. Sanabria (78').

Belgrano Cordoba controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — League #1032 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #1032: Belgrano Cordoba 1–1 Central Cordoba de Santiago