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Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Belgrano Cordoba
Belgrano Cordoba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Central Cordoba de Santiago
B. Reyna 68', 58'
T. Molina 45+4' (pen)
5/25/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Julio César Villagra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Belgrano Cordoba44%
×Draw30%
Central Cordoba de Santiago26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belgrano Cordoba
1.19
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.85

Belgrano Cordoba creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 18 away

creates per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.98
Central Cordoba de Santiago
0.74

allows per match

Belgrano Cordoba
0.97
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1.40

finishing

Belgrano Cordoba+0.02on par
Central Cordoba de Santiago+0.15scores more

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belgrano Cordoba ↓

Central Cordoba de Santiago →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Belgrano Cordoba or draw
74%
Belgrano Cordoba or Central Cordoba de Santiago
70%
Draw or Central Cordoba de Santiago
56%

Winning margin

Belgrano Cordoba wins by 2+
19%
Central Cordoba de Santiago wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Belgrano Cordoba 1+ goals
70%
Belgrano Cordoba 2+ goals
33%
Belgrano Cordoba 3+ goals
12%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 1+ goals
57%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 2+ goals
21%
Central Cordoba de Santiago 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Belgrano Cordoba (draw refunded)
63%
Central Cordoba de Santiago (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belgrano Cordoba at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Central Cordoba de Santiago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.40 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belgrano Cordoba attack 0.98 + Central Cordoba de Santiago defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Central Cordoba de Santiago attack 0.74 + Belgrano Cordoba defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Belgrano Cordoba scores more
44%
level
30%
Central Cordoba de Santiago scores more
26%

Belgrano Cordoba at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Belgrano Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
B. ReynaBelgrano CordobaBelgrano Cordoba · F
8.6

Match Events

17'
B. Reyna
27'
R. Cansinos← M. Godoy
45+2'
A. Rebola
45+4'
T. MolinaPenalty
46'
G. Heredia← E. Rolón
46'
F. González← M. Marín
46'
R. Delgado← A. Baldi
52'
D. Miloc
58'
B. Reyna↳ F. González
63'
M. Moreno
66'
F. Monzón← W. Montoya
68'
B. Reyna
69'
M. Moreno
69'
M. Moreno
73'
M. Troilo← B. Reyna
74'
F. Monzon
81'
S. Laquidain
84'
S. Longo← J. Barinaga
84'
G. Álvez← O. Garrido
86'
F. Quignon
90+6'
R. Delgado

Possession

35%Belgrano

Shots

12Belgrano

Pass accuracy

46%Belgrano

Statistics

BelgranoCentral
Overview
35%Possession65%
12Total Shots11
2.74Expected Goals (xG)1.16
4Corners7
20Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots11
6On Target2
6Off Target5
0Blocked4
11Inside Box5
1Outside Box6
Passing
35%Possession65%
231Total Passes450
160Accurate Passes369
69%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
1.35Goals Prevented1.35
Discipline
20Fouls8
6Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Belgrano Cordoba vs Central Cordoba de Santiago

Belgrano Cordoba beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 25, 2024.

Goals: T. Molina (45+4' pen), B. Reyna (58', 68').

Central Cordoba de Santiago controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Julio César Villagra in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.