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Catanzaro vs Avellino — Serie B 2018

Catanzaro
Catanzaroadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avellino
Avellino
P. Iemmello 90' (pen)
T. Cassandro 83'
S. Pontisso 41'
5/12/2026Serie BSerie B · Quarter-finalsStadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Catanzaro60%
×Draw23%
Avellino17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Catanzaro
1.75
Avellino
0.79

Catanzaro creates 122% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Catanzaro
1.67
Avellino
0.48

allows per match

Catanzaro
1.10
Avellino
1.82

finishing

Catanzaro+0.43scores more
Avellino+0.02on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Avellino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw
83%
Catanzaro or Avellino
77%
Draw or Avellino
40%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+
34%
Avellino wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals
83%
Catanzaro 2+ goals
52%
Catanzaro 3+ goals
25%
Avellino 1+ goals
55%
Avellino 2+ goals
19%
Avellino 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)
78%
Avellino (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.67 + Avellino defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Avellino attack 0.48 + Catanzaro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Catanzaro scores more
60%
level
23%
Avellino scores more
17%

Catanzaro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

84
T. CassandroCatanzaroCatanzaro · D
8.2

Match Events

15'
Tommaso Cancellotti
41'
S. Pontisso↳ J. Petriccione
52'
Federico Di FrancescoGoal cancelled
54'
T. Biasci← C. Patierno
54'
L. Pandolfi← M. Besaggio
60'
R. Insigne← D. Sounas
69'
F. Rispoli← F. Di Francesco
80'
M. Pompetti← S. Pontisso
80'
R. Frosinini← M. Liberali
80'
P. Iemmello← G. Alesi
80'
A. Le Borgne← T. Cancellotti
80'
L. D'Andrea← L. Palmiero
83'
T. Cassandro↳ C. Favasuli
90+4'
P. Nuamah← J. Petriccione
90'
P. IemmelloPenalty

Possession

47%Catanzaro

Shots

20Catanzaro

Pass accuracy

51%Catanzaro

Statistics

CatanzaroAvellino
Overview
47%Possession53%
20Total Shots8
1.76Expected Goals (xG)0.64
6Corners5
20Fouls12
Shots
20Total Shots8
8On Target3
7Off Target3
5Blocked2
14Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
47%Possession53%
386Total Passes434
325Accurate Passes352
84%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
-0.88Goals Prevented-0.88
Discipline
20Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Catanzaro vs Avellino

Catanzaro beat Avellino 3-0 in Serie B on May 12, 2026.

Goals: S. Pontisso (41'), T. Cassandro (83'), P. Iemmello (90' pen).

Avellino controlled possession (53%) and registered 8 shots to 20.

The match was played at Stadio Nicola Ceravolo in Catanzaro.