Avellino 1–1 Catanzaro: Result & Stats | Serie B

Avellino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Catanzaro

A. Iannarilli 90'

P. Iemmello 60'

4/11/2026

Serie B · Round 34Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Avellino44%

×Draw25%

Catanzaro31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvellinoExpected goals in this matchCatanzaro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Avellino

1.50

Catanzaro

1.21

Avellino creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

1.53

creates per match

1.27

1.15

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Avellino

1.53

Catanzaro

1.27

allows per match

Avellino

1.15

Catanzaro

1.48

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Avellino-0.24scores less

Catanzaro+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avellino ↓

Catanzaro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Avellino or draw

69%

Avellino or Catanzaro

75%

Draw or Catanzaro

56%

Winning margin

Avellino wins by 2+

22%

Catanzaro wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Avellino 1+ goals

78%

Avellino 2+ goals

44%

Avellino 3+ goals

19%

Catanzaro 1+ goals

70%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

34%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Avellino (draw refunded)

59%

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avellino at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.15 · 7 matches

Catanzaro away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.48 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avellino attack 1.53 + Catanzaro defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Catanzaro attack 1.27 + Avellino defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Avellino scores more

44%

level

25%

Catanzaro scores more

31%

Avellino at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Avellino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

S. Pontisso

Catanzaro · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

Jacopo Petriccione

10'

Raffaele Russo

29'

Dimitrios Sounas

31'

M. Pompetti← J. Petriccione

40'

Tommaso Cancellotti

46'

F. Missori← J. Kumi

56'

Nicolò Brighenti

60'

P. Iemmello↳ S. Pontisso

63'

A. Favilli← M. Palumbo

63'

C. Patierno← T. Biasci

64'

R. Insigne← T. Cancellotti

66'

Simone Pontisso

72'

Federico Di Francesco

75'

Nicolò Brighenti

75'

Nicolò Brighenti

79'

A. Le Borgne← D. Sounas

79'

D. Buglio← S. Pontisso

79'

R. Frosinini← F. Di Francesco

79'

G. Esteves← M. Liberali

86'

B. Verrengia← Fellipe Jack

90+6'

Antony Iannarilli

90+6'

Antony IannarilliGoal confirmed

90'

A. Iannarilli↳ R. Insigne

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvellinoCatanzaro

Overview

44%Possession56%

19Total Shots7

2.08Expected Goals (xG)0.54

6Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

19Total Shots7

5On Target2

9Off Target3

5Blocked2

12Inside Box2

7Outside Box5

Passing

44%Possession56%

337Total Passes466

287Accurate Passes408

85%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.20Goals Prevented-0.20

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0