Catanzaro 1–0 Avellino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Catanzaro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avellino

A. Cisse 52'

12/13/2025

Serie B · Round 16Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Catanzaro60%

×Draw23%

Avellino17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.79

Catanzaro

1.75

Avellino

0.79

Catanzaro creates 122% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

1.67

creates per match

0.48

1.10

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Catanzaro

1.67

Avellino

0.48

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.10

Avellino

1.82

+0.43scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Catanzaro+0.43scores more

Avellino+0.02on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

83%

Catanzaro or Avellino

77%

Draw or Avellino

40%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

34%

Avellino wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

83%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

52%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

25%

Avellino 1+ goals

55%

Avellino 2+ goals

19%

Avellino 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

78%

Avellino (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 1.67 + Avellino defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.75

Avellino attack 0.48 + Catanzaro defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Catanzaro scores more

60%

level

23%

Avellino scores more

17%

Catanzaro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

80

A. Cisse

Catanzaro · F

8.2

Match Events

20'

Jacopo Petriccione

26'

Filippo Missori

27'

Filippo Pittarello

52'

A. Cisse↳ M. D'Alessandro

57'

M. Besaggio← J. Kumi

63'

C. Patierno← G. Tutino

63'

R. Russo← F. Missori

68'

F. Rispoli← F. Pittarello

69'

L. Pandolfi← A. Cisse

77'

R. Frosinini← M. D'Alessandro

82'

V. Crespi← M. Palumbo

88'

P. Nuamah← P. Iemmello

88'

G. Alesi← S. Pontisso

90+4'

Fabio Rispoli

90+2'

Michele Besaggio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CatanzaroAvellino

Overview

56%Possession44%

14Total Shots6

1.48Expected Goals (xG)0.74

4Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots6

3On Target2

5Off Target2

6Blocked2

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

480Total Passes373

418Accurate Passes304

87%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1