Catanzaro 4–1 Avellino: Result & Stats

Catanzaro

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avellino

S. Pontisso 90+3'

T. Biasci 88', 30'

P. Iemmello 69'

M. Marconi 12'

3/4/2023

League #943 · Girone C - 30Stadio Nicola Ceravolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Catanzaro60%

×Draw22%

Avellino17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CatanzaroExpected goals in this matchAvellino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.89

Catanzaro

1.87

Avellino

0.89

Catanzaro creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

2.20

creates per match

0.77

1.00

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Catanzaro

2.20

Avellino

0.77

allows per match

Catanzaro

1.00

Avellino

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Catanzaro+0.00on par

Avellino+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Catanzaro ↓

Avellino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Catanzaro or draw

83%

Catanzaro or Avellino

78%

Draw or Avellino

40%

Winning margin

Catanzaro wins by 2+

35%

Avellino wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Catanzaro 1+ goals

85%

Catanzaro 2+ goals

56%

Catanzaro 3+ goals

29%

Avellino 1+ goals

59%

Avellino 2+ goals

22%

Avellino 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Catanzaro (draw refunded)

78%

Avellino (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Catanzaro at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Avellino away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Catanzaro attack 2.20 + Avellino defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.87

Avellino attack 0.77 + Catanzaro defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Catanzaro scores more

60%

level

22%

Avellino scores more

17%

Catanzaro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Catanzaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

21'

25'

30'

67'

F. Casarini← S. DAngelo

69'

P. Iemmello

70'

E. Brignola← D. Sounas

72'

75'

78'

82'

84'

S. Pontisso← L. Verna

86'

M. Garetto← D. Mazzocco

86'

D. Gambale← M. Marconi

88'

T. Biasci

89'

F. Bombagi← T. Biasci

89'

P. Cianci← P. Iemmello

90+3'

S. Pontisso

Catanzaro

Avellino

1

13

3

34

42

27

21

▼

Matera

72

▼

D'Angelo

18

▼

Mazzocco

31

⚽

▼

10

1

23

13

92

8

▼

Verna

24

▼

Sounas

27

Vandeputt

18

Ghion

9

⚽

▼

Iemmello

28

⚽2

▼

Biasci

14

Scognamil

Manager: V. Vivarini

70'▲E. Brignola←▼D. Sounas

84'▲S. Pontisso←▼L. Verna

89'▲F. Bombagi←▼T. Biasci

89'▲P. Cianci←▼P. Iemmello

Catanzaro substitutes

17Brignola20Pontisso10Bombagi99Cianci3Tentardini6Welbeck16Sala21Curcio44Gatti77Katseris88Cinelli90Grimaldi

Manager: M. Rastelli

67'▲F. Casarini←▼S. DAngelo

82'▲F. Maisto←▼A. Matera

86'▲M. Garetto←▼D. Mazzocco

86'▲D. Gambale←▼M. Marconi

Avellino substitutes

20Casarini28Maisto8Garetto9Gambale6Sottini12Marcone14Gaudio16Pizzella29Trotta39Perrone