Castellón 0–1 Albacete: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Albacete

Agus Medina 5'

10/19/2025

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Castellón41%

×Draw23%

Albacete36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.58

Castellón

1.69

Albacete

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.99

creates per match

1.65

1.52

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Castellón

1.99

Albacete

1.65

allows per match

Castellón

1.52

Albacete

1.39

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Castellón+0.34scores more

Albacete-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

64%

Castellón or Albacete

77%

Draw or Albacete

59%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

82%

Castellón 2+ goals

50%

Castellón 3+ goals

24%

Albacete 1+ goals

79%

Albacete 2+ goals

47%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

53%

Albacete (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.99 + Albacete defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Albacete attack 1.65 + Castellón defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castellón scores more

41%

level

23%

Albacete scores more

36%

Castellón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

R. Matthys

Castellón · G

8.9

Match Events

5'

21'

22'

30'

40'

46'

T. De Nipoti← K. Mamah

57'

Ronaldo Pompeu

57'

Ronaldo Pompeu

57'

Fran Gámez

59'

Barri← M. Doue

60'

O. Camara← A. Jakobsen

63'

Lucas Alcazar

66'

I. Suero← S. Ruiz

69'

J. Morcillo← J. Villar

70'

A. Pacheco← A. Puertas

75'

Tincho← Alcazar

76'

Capi← J. Lazo

76'

H. Marin← D. Escriche

89'

Alberto JiménezCard upgrade

89'

Higinio MarínCard upgrade

90+7'

90'

90+8'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónAlbacete

Overview

64%Possession36%

22Total Shots11

9Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

22Total Shots11

5On Target8

12Off Target2

5Blocked1

15Inside Box9

7Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

439Total Passes256

382Accurate Passes195

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

7Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

2Red Cards1

0Offsides2

Segunda División: Castellón 0–1 Albacete

Albacete beat Castellón 1-0 in Segunda División on October 19, 2025.

Goals: Agus Medina (5').

Castellón controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia in Castellon.

Castellón vs Albacete — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Castellón 0–1 Albacete