Albacete 1–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Castellón

J. Betancor 42'

F. Brignani 45'

3/28/2026

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete30%

×Draw23%

Castellón47%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.77

Albacete

1.38

Castellón

1.77

Castellón creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.31

creates per match

2.18

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Albacete

1.31

Castellón

2.18

allows per match

Albacete

1.36

Castellón

1.44

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less

Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

53%

Albacete or Castellón

77%

Draw or Castellón

70%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

13%

Castellón wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

75%

Albacete 2+ goals

40%

Albacete 3+ goals

16%

Castellón 1+ goals

83%

Castellón 2+ goals

53%

Castellón 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

39%

Castellón (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Castellón attack 2.18 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albacete scores more

30%

level

23%

Castellón scores more

47%

Castellón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Betancor

Albacete · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

Martín Fernández

36'

Marc-Olivier Doué

42'

J. Betancor↳ A. Puertas

44'

Fabrizio Brignani

45'

F. Brignani↳ I. Suero

60'

Alejandro Meléndez

62'

A. Jakobsen← M. Doue

65'

J. Lazo← V. San Bartolome

65'

Jogo← D. Bernabeu

65'

A. Pacheco← A. Melendez

73'

S. Obeng← J. Betancor

78'

T. De Nipoti← I. Suero

78'

80'

80'

88'

89'

A. Garcia← P. Santiago

90'

90+6'

90+4'

90'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteCastellón

Overview

37%Possession63%

11Total Shots13

6Corners8

12Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target6

2Off Target4

5Blocked3

9Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

302Total Passes526

218Accurate Passes437

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls16

4Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Albacete vs Castellón

Albacete and Castellón drew 1-1 in Segunda División on March 28, 2026.

Goals: J. Betancor (42'), F. Brignani (45').

Castellón controlled possession (63%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs Castellón