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Albacete vs Castellón — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Castellón
Castellón
12/8/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 18Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Albacete30%
×Draw23%
Castellón47%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.38
Castellón
1.77

Castellón creates 28% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.31
Castellón
2.18

allows per match

Albacete
1.36
Castellón
1.44

finishing

Albacete-0.14scores less
Castellón-0.61scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Castellón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
53%
Albacete or Castellón
77%
Draw or Castellón
70%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
13%
Castellón wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
75%
Albacete 2+ goals
40%
Albacete 3+ goals
16%
Castellón 1+ goals
83%
Castellón 2+ goals
53%
Castellón 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
39%
Castellón (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.36 · 6 matches

Castellón away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.44 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.31 + Castellón defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.38

Castellón attack 2.18 + Albacete defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Albacete scores more
30%
level
23%
Castellón scores more
47%

Castellón at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Juan AntonioAlbaceteAlbacete · D
7.7

Match Events

36'
Daijiro Chirino
60'
Dani Villahermosa← Douglas Aurélio
69'
Fidel← Agus Medina
69'
N. Touaizi← Jon Morcillo
76'
Gonzalo Pastor← Israel Suero
76'
Josep Calavera← Sergio Moyita
80'
Javi Villar← Antonio Pacheco
80'
Marcos Moreno← Alberto Quiles
88'
José Carlos Lazo← Juanma García
88'
Peré← D. Flakus Bosilj

Possession

31%Albacete

Shots

9Albacete

Pass accuracy

43%Albacete

Statistics

AlbaceteCastellón
Overview
31%Possession69%
9Total Shots5
4Corners6
5Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots5
2On Target0
5Off Target2
2Blocked3
6Inside Box1
3Outside Box4
Passing
31%Possession69%
241Total Passes563
149Accurate Passes468
62%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Albacete vs Castellón

Albacete and Castellón drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 8, 2024.

Castellón controlled possession (69%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.