Castellón 2–2 Albacete: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Albacete

N. Markanich 83'

Israel Suero 7' (pen)

C. Kofane 38'

Pablo Sáenz 2'

4/4/2025

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio SkyFi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Castellón41%

×Draw23%

Albacete36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchAlbacete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.58

Castellón

1.69

Albacete

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.99

creates per match

1.65

1.52

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Castellón

1.99

Albacete

1.65

allows per match

Castellón

1.52

Albacete

1.39

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Castellón+0.34scores more

Albacete-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Albacete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

64%

Castellón or Albacete

77%

Draw or Albacete

59%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Albacete wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

82%

Castellón 2+ goals

50%

Castellón 3+ goals

24%

Albacete 1+ goals

79%

Albacete 2+ goals

47%

Albacete 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

53%

Albacete (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

Albacete away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.99 + Albacete defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.69

Albacete attack 1.65 + Castellón defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Castellón scores more

41%

level

23%

Albacete scores more

36%

Castellón at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Cala

Castellón · M

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Jon Morcillo

2'

Pablo Sáenz↳ Riki Rodríguez

5'

Ousmane CamaraPenalty confirmed

7'

Israel SueroPenalty

38'

C. Kofane↳ Jaume Costa

46'

B. Cipenga← Josep Calavera

46'

Higinio Marín← C. Kofane

46'

Javi Villar← Jon Morcillo

54'

De Miguel← A. Lottin

66'

Juan María Alcedo← Jaume Costa

69'

Sergio Moyita← D. Chirino

75'

Jon García← N. Touaizi

82'

J. Willems← A. Mabil

82'

N. Markanich← J. Vertrouwd

83'

N. Markanich↳ De Miguel

84'

Fidel← Pablo Sáenz

89'

Nick Markanich

90+8'

Jetro Willems

90+5'

Nick MarkanichPenalty cancelled

90+1'

Nick MarkanichGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónAlbacete

Overview

74%Possession26%

29Total Shots7

10Corners1

7Fouls7

Shots

29Total Shots7

6On Target5

13Off Target1

10Blocked1

23Inside Box4

6Outside Box3

Passing

74%Possession26%

573Total Passes207

481Accurate Passes120

84%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2