Carlisle 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fleetwood Town

O. Moxon 36'

B. Sarpong-Wiredu 45+4'

8/5/2023

League One · Round 1Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Carlisle32%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.46

Carlisle

1.22

Fleetwood Town

1.46

Fleetwood Town creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 132 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

1.75

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Carlisle

1.00

Fleetwood Town

1.17

allows per match

Carlisle

1.75

Fleetwood Town

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

57%

Carlisle or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

68%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

13%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

70%

Carlisle 2+ goals

34%

Carlisle 3+ goals

12%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

77%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

43%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

43%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 24 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.44 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.00 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlisle scores more

32%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

43%

Fleetwood Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

O. Moxon

Carlisle · M

8.2

Match Events

4'

36'

45+2'

45+4'

49'

S. Rooney← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

63'

J. Marriott← P. Omochere

68'

J. Garner← L. Plange

69'

S. Maguire← A. McCalmont

73'

Aristote Nsiala

79'

T. Charters← O. Moxon

79'

D. McGeouch← J. Gibson

85'

Josh Earl

87'

M. Asamoah← R. Graydon

87'

C. Hayes← P. Patterson

90+5'

Shaun Rooney

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleFleetwood

Overview

42%Possession58%

15Total Shots13

5Corners2

8Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target5

8Off Target3

1Blocked5

8Inside Box8

7Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

317Total Passes454

211Accurate Passes352

67%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0