Carlisle 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fleetwood Town

T. Charters 120+9' (pen)

J. Mellish 120+7' (pen)

C. Whelan 120+5' (pen)

J. Stretton 120+3' (pen)

D. Idehen 90'

D. Andrew 120+4' (pen)

C. Morton 120+2' (pen)

J. Garner 46'

9/20/2022

League #46 · Group Stage - 5Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Carlisle30%

×Draw20%

Fleetwood Town50%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.29

Carlisle

1.75

Fleetwood Town

2.29

Fleetwood Town creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

2.33

2.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Carlisle

1.50

Fleetwood Town

2.33

allows per match

Carlisle

2.25

Fleetwood Town

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

50%

Carlisle or Fleetwood Town

80%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

70%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

15%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

83%

Carlisle 2+ goals

52%

Carlisle 3+ goals

25%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

90%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

66%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

37%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.50 + Fleetwood Town defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Fleetwood Town attack 2.33 + Carlisle defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Carlisle scores more

30%

level

20%

Fleetwood Town scores more

50%

Fleetwood Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

J. Garner

Fleetwood Town · F

8.2

Match Events

39'

N. Bollado← O. Patrick

46'

J. Garner↳ S. Rooney

53'

D. Andrew← J. Edwards

68'

C. Guy← O. Moxon

68'

J. Gibson← R. Carr

68'

A. Muskwe← J. Garner

69'

A. Raffie← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

79'

C. Morton← M. Devlin

79'

M. McMillan← C. Hayes

80'

J. Mellish← S. Hilton

90+6'

Jayden Harris

90+6'

Aristote Nsiala

90'

D. Idehen

120+1'

J. GibsonMissed penalty

120+2'

C. MortonPenalty

120+3'

J. StrettonPenalty

120+4'

D. AndrewPenalty

120+5'

C. WhelanPenalty

120+6'

D. BattyMissed penalty

120+7'

J. MellishPenalty

120+8'

J. VelaMissed penalty

120+9'

T. ChartersPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CarlisleFleetwood

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots12

10Corners6

3Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots12

6On Target7

7Off Target2

5Blocked3

10Inside Box10

8Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

428Total Passes474

323Accurate Passes368

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

3Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2