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Fleetwood Town vs Carlisle — League One 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Carlisle
Carlisle
12/26/2023League OneLeague One · Round 24Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fleetwood Town48%
×Draw26%
Carlisle26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.48
Carlisle
1.02

Fleetwood Town creates 45% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.27
Carlisle
0.87

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.17
Carlisle
1.70

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
74%
Fleetwood Town or Carlisle
74%
Draw or Carlisle
52%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
24%
Carlisle wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
77%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
43%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
19%
Carlisle 1+ goals
64%
Carlisle 2+ goals
27%
Carlisle 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
65%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.48

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
48%
level
26%
Carlisle scores more
26%

Fleetwood Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Fleetwood Town 1–1 Carlisle

Fleetwood Town and Carlisle drew 1-1 in League One on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.