Carlisle 2–3 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Fleetwood Town

9/14/2024

League Two · Round 6Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Carlisle39%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.23

Carlisle

1.34

Fleetwood Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 46 away

1.31

creates per match

1.28

1.19

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Carlisle

1.31

Fleetwood Town

1.28

allows per match

Carlisle

1.19

Fleetwood Town

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

66%

Carlisle or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

61%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

18%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

74%

Carlisle 2+ goals

39%

Carlisle 3+ goals

15%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

54%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 132 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.37 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fleetwood Town attack 1.28 + Carlisle defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlisle scores more

39%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

34%

Carlisle at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff